ellisad01: DK Elections: The week that was

Donald Trump (Photo: Gage Skidmore)
and Sarah Palin (Photo: David Shankbone)

The Easter weekend edition of our weekly polling and campaign trail highlight reel will answer several questions:

Why, given the latest data, should either of the people you see to your immediate right be smiling?
What two states that President Obama carried in 2008 look decidedly more perilous in this cycle?
Who is the incumbent that polls show may well be among the most vulnerable statewide officers facing re-election in 2012?
And...finally...what the heck is going to happen in Nevada, where a certain scandal-tarred Republican finally got the hint (albeit a year or two late)?

This week's edition of the "week that was" will answer these, and other pressing questions, in the time it takes you to hide all those eggs.

THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

NATIONAL: There are no dramatic departures in the trend lines this week, as the status quo prevails in the 2012 electoral calculus. The President is still suffering from anemic approval numbers (net negatives across the board this week, save for one pollster). However, he still holds an edge (in some cases, a substantial one) over the likely prospects to earn the GOP nomination.

ABC News (PDF) went into the field this week, and they find that even though the President's job approval is slightly underwater (47/50), he holds leads ranging from four to 19 points over the Republican field. Mitt Romney comes closest (49-45), and Mike Huckabee also runs reasonably well (50-44). But Sarah Palin gets crushed (56-37), and GOP "luminaries" like Donald Trump (52-40) and Newt Gingrich (54-39) fare little better. The extent to which the GOP field is undefined is underscored by their primary election polling, which has Romney pacing the field with only 16% of the vote and an eye-popping 55% of the field not settling on a candidate.

Meanwhile, a new McClatchy poll (conducted by Marist (PDF)) puts the President out in front of the GOP field, but the margin varies wildly depending on the candidate. If the GOP nominates Mitt Romney (46-45) or Mike Huckabee (48-43), then the contest could be fairly described as tight, even a toss-up in Romney's case. But if the GOP turns to either Donald Trump (54-38) or Sarah Palin (56-34), it transforms into a 1964-esque romp for the Democrats.

Are Palin and Trump legitimate threats for the nomination, however? Marist/McClatchy says "possibly." The huge gaps between the top two and the other two in the general election do not translate to the primary. While Romney (18%) and Huckabee (17%) are nominally out in front, Trump (13%) remains within striking distance. Trump's ascendancy has clearly come out of Palin's support (she drops to 8%), but even more markedly from Newt Gingrich, who plunges to also-ran status at 4% of the vote.

Another national poll of the GOP primary put the Trump/Palin combo in even stronger position with Republicans. Gallup runs the numbers and finds Trump as the co-leader at 16% with Huckabee. Romney trails at 13%, with Palin running fourth at 10%. Again, the big victim of the Trump boomlet appears to be Gingrich, who falls to 6%.

On the approval rating front, it is a pretty tough week for the President. The only pollster to find him in net-positive territory in job approval was CBS News, and they only had him sitting on a 46/45 spread. The most pessimistic, and by a wide margin, were the pirate pollsters (ARG), who have Obama dropping to a painful 42/53 spread. Splitting the difference were pollsters like Marist/McClatchy (44/49), The Economist/YouGov (43/48, and a four-point lead for Obama over Romney), and our own Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll (45/48).

THE STATES: The two states that get the earliest attention in the presidential sweepstakes also got a little bit of attention this week, as both Iowa and New Hampshire saw new data this week.

In the Granite State, a new poll from Dartmouth (who, as far back as I can remember, has not been a common source for political polling) shows an almost bizarre spread in potential general election contests. It is not uncommon to see a range of 10 to 20 points between potential candidates when paired with an incumbent for president (see the national polling above). But...35 points?! That's what the Dartmouth poll tells us, claiming that Mitt Romney would defeat the President in the state by eight points. This is especially notable, considering that Obama carried New Hampshire by nearly 10 points in 2008. However, everybody else, according to the Big Green, fall to Obama by margins ranging from eight to 27 points. Curiously, it doesn't appear as if the Dartmouth poll looked at the GOP primary.

The GOP caucuses in Iowa were the focus of a pair of new polls this week. Our polling partners at PPP ran the numbers, and give Mike Huckabee a solid lead here. Huckabee sits with a double-digit lead, with 27% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 16%. Trailing behind them are Donald Trump (14%), Newt Gingrich (9%), and Sarah Palin (8%). The also-rans eat up another 20% or so of the vote. Meanwhile, ARG(!) also polls the GOP caucuses in Iowa, and finds a much tighter contest. Here, ARG puts Huckabee (18%) up by a single point over Romney (17%), with Gingrich (12%) and Trump (10%) back in the field. The notable finding in this one: they have Palin circling the drain, drawing just 4% GOP support.

PPP also polls the general election in Iowa, with one helluva twist. They polled it straight up, and found that President Obama would be in a tight race with either Mike Huckabee (45-45) or Mitt Romney (Obama leads 45-41).

However, if Donald Trump is thrown into the mix as an Indie candidate (and he made waves last week by suggesting that he might), it is suddenly a landslide. Obama leads with 43% of the vote, with Romney sitting at 27% of the vote and Trump at 21%.

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE

THE POLLS: A very data-light week on the Senate front. You know you are scrambling for numbers, for example, when one of the few items of note is the relatively weak approval numbers for an incumbent senator. The senator is New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez, the pollster is Quinnipiac, and the numbers are a very middling 42/40. However, that spread is actually an improvement for the freshman senator, and with few whispers about top-tier GOP opposition suiting up, he might be in decent shape for 2012. Having said that, this week also brought the first indication that a legit Republican is eyeing the race, as wealthy self-funder John Crowley (who has flirted with, but ultimately demurred, from other bids) is giving it some thought. There was one other poll this week, out of Alaska (PDF) by Dittman, but with no Senate races on the docket there in 2012, its utility to us is limited solely to the truly abysmal numbers there for Sarah Palin and Joe Miller.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

The big news this week, of course, came out of Nevada, where Republican Senator John Ensign announced his resignation, effective in early May. Ensign had already announced that he would not seek re-election, so his decision to pull up stakes was all the more surprising. A hint may have come, however, from some members of the Senate Ethics committee, who released a statement yesterday which cryptically notes that the Senator arrived at "the right decision." The move also sets up Governor Brian Sandoval (R) to give Congressman Dean Heller a head start on his Senate career, though Sandoval swears up and down that he has no preconceived notions about who to appoint to the post. As Nate Silver noted, however, getting appointed to the Senate is not always a guarantee that incumbency will sweep you to the full term in your own right.
Ensign wasn't the only one to slam the door on Senate politics this week, although you gotta give him credit for doing it the most dramatically. One of the other stories of the week was the prominent names who backed away from U.S. Senate bids (although it must be noted that none of them were considered likely prospects in the first place). Demurring this week from 2012 bids: Meg Whitman in California, Deval Patrick in Massachusetts, and promising young state legislator Emily Cain in Maine.
With that trio saying "no", it is probably useful to do a quick recap at who seems, after this week, to be saying "yes." Two of the most prominent names to enter into the picture this week were Democratic state auditor Hector Balderas (New Mexico) and Republican state legislator Adam Hasner (Florida). Hasner had seemed like a lock to make the bid for a while, but some wondered if the entrance of Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich into the Senate field in the Land of Enchantment might give Balderas pause. Other strong "maybes" that are now apparently eyeing Senate bids include former military general Ricardo Sanchez (D-Texas), physician/Paul progeny Robert Paul (R-Texas), Congressman Blaine Leutkemeyer (R-Missouri), and former state senator Kevin Coughlin (R-Ohio). Speaking of Ohio Republicans, the close of the week saw the best-est Senate recruitment news with the word that Ken Blackwell, last seen losing to Ted Strickland by about 25 points in 2006 in a gubernatorial bid, is appearently in conversations with the NRSC about a 2012 bid. Perhaps Blackwell figures that six years is ample time to erase the stain of getting throttled in a statewide election.

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE

REDISTRICTING: For now, our primary focus will be on redistricting, since polling in the House races is likely to be scant until the actual districts are hammered out, and even generic polling is pretty hard to come by right now. So, let's look at the states that are polishing off the redistricting process. Louisiana is a done deal, and the boys over at SSP have the numbers duly crunched. The end result is one fewer Republican (with the likely casualty being either Charles Boustany or newcomer Jeff Landry), but dim prospects for another Democrat to join the sole Dem in the delegation, NOLA-based freshman Cedric Richmond (LA-02). If there is a district that could swing it, it might be the Shreveport-based 4th district, which is a few points more Dem than the balance of the districts. Before anyone gets excited, though, we are talking about a district that still went 59-39 McCain, and went 58-36 Vitter in 2010.

Meanwhile, the SSP number-crunchers also looked at the recently completed maps in Arkansas. The verdict? For an all-Dem redistricting process, it is hard to make the argument that this map was favorable to Dems. The 1st became incrementally more Democratic (and by a fraction), and the 4th became incrementally more Republican. If the electoral cartographers could have endangered freshmen Rick Crawford or Tim Griffin, they missed the opportunity.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

This week was all about the big-named campaign launches. In what has to be labelled a genuine surprise, former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack made it official that she is exploring a bid in the newly-created Iowa 4th district against longtime GOP incumbent Steve King. Vilsack might be the only Dem that can make that red-hued district competitive, but the numbers there are not entirely favorable to her (the district was carried by Bush and McCain, and was easily carried by Terry Branstad in 2010). Meanwhile, another high-profile race found a new candidate: embattled Democrat David Wu (OR-01) will a primary challenge from state labor commissioner Brad Avakian. Lastly, former Congressman Matt Salmon confirmed he is making a comeback, as he tries to claim the 6th district seat being vacated by Senate candidate Jeff Flake.
Earlier, we talked about the bizarre and sudden resignation of Republican John Ensign in Nevada. The ripple effects of that decision, as it happens, are likely to carry over into the House. If, as nearly everyone expects, GOP Governor Brian Sandoval appoints Congressman Dean Heller to the Senate, that will touch off a special election to replace Heller in the largely rural and GOP-leaning 2nd district. How will that play out? Well, strangely, no one is sure. The reason? A special House election has never occurred in Nevada's century-and-a-half of statehood. Depending on whose interpretation of the relevant statutes you believe, the election will either be a single action, with all candidates on the ballot (a la Hawaii-01 in 2010), or an election where the parties will tab their nominees in the absence of a primary (a la NY-26 this year). It appears the arbiter will be Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller, a Democrat. Dems would likely favor the former approach, since there are likely to be a raft of Republicans vying for the bid, sending up a very similar scenario to Hawaii-01 last year.
There is actually one little bit of data to consume this week, and it comes from the special election in my own backyard. In CA-36, a poll by the Feldman Group for candidate Debra Bowen finds a tight race to replace longtime Rep. Jane Harman. Bowen sits dead even with fellow Democrat Janice Hahn at 20% of the vote. It is then quite a ways back to moderate Republican Mike Gin (the mayor of Redondo Beach) at 8%. Democrat Marcy Winograd, who primaried Harman twice, sits fourth at 6%. Should it go to a runoff (which it looks like it will), the Bowen-sponsored poll finds her with a 40-36 lead over Hahn.
Haven't talked much about fundraising on this weekend edition, but here's one item. Greatest fundraising effort. Ever.
Getting back to redistricting to close this section, this is worth a read: The Fix's Aaron Blake created a potential casualty list of current incumbents who could feel the blade of the ax when all the map-making is said and done.

THE BATTLE FOR THE STATEHOUSES

THE POLLS: It is hard not to conclude that North Carolina Democratic Governor Bev Perdue is the most vulnerable Governor in the next two years of elections. A pair of polls this week seem to confirm that fact, as both pollsters (PPP and SUSA) have her trailing by double digits to likely GOP challenger Pat McCrory. If there is any good news for Perdue, it is that her numbers in PPP's poll are actually a step up for the incumbent. Despite trailing by eleven points (49-38), that is actually three points closer than it was last month. SurveyUSA, meanwhile, gets nearly identical numbers (51-39) in their efforts polling for Civitas.

SurveyUSA, for what it's worth, has been on a gubernatorial polling spree, as they also hit a 2011 contest this week. The race is in Kentucky, and in this race, the Democratic incumbent is up top. Democrat Steve Beshear has double digit leads over the field. Against likely GOP challenger David Williams, the margin is twelve (51-39). If a GOP electoral miracle occurs and either Bobbie Holsclaw or Phil Moffet pulls out the primary upset, Beshear's lead gets out to around twenty points.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

Republicans have to feel like a winnable race is rapidly getting away from them. Not only has Republican frontrunner Peter Kinder (the state's Lt. Governor) in the midst of a media shitstorm over his lavish travel on the state's dime, he also got creamed on the fundraising front. Incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon nabbed $1.7 million this quarter, more than doubling up Kinder (who came in at $770K).
The air war is heating up in West Virginia, which will replace former Governor (and current Senator) Joe Manchin this year. One of the first negative ads of the cycle hit the air this week, as state treasurer John Perdue took a run at sitting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin. Meanwhile, secretary of state Natalie Tennant also hit the airwaves, going with a folksy spot (complete with, as David Nir noted with amusement, a mooing cow).